Will Turkiye and Syria succeed in turning the page on decade-long enmity?/node/2553811/middle-east
Will Turkiye and Syria succeed in turning the page on decade-long enmity?
Protesters in opposition-held Idlib and the Aleppo countryside wave flags of the Syrian revolution and hold signs that read: ‘If you want to get closer to Assad, congratulations, the curse of history is upon you.’ (AN photo by Ahmed Akasha)
ATHENS/QAMISHLI, Syria: Since 2022, senior Syrian and Turkish officials have periodically met in Moscow for talks mediated by Russia. But those meetings have failed to result in a thaw in their icy relations.
It is a different matter now, however, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announcing his desire to restore formal ties with his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad.
He said earlier this month that he could invite Assad to Turkiye “at any moment,” to which the Syrian leader responded that any meeting would depend on the “content.”
Ankara and Damascus severed diplomatic ties in 2011 following the eruption of Syria’s civil war. Relations have remained hostile ever since, particularly as Turkiye continues to support armed groups resisting the Assad regime.
Since the civil war erupted in 2011, Turkiye has supported armed Syrian factions in their fight against the regime of President Bashar Assad. (AFP)
What, then, is the motivation for changing course now? And what are the likely consequences of Turkish-Syrian normalization of ties?
Syrian writer and political researcher Shoresh Darwish believes President Erdogan is pursuing normalization for two reasons. “The first is preparation for the possibility of the arrival of a new American administration led by Donald Trump, which means the possibility of a return to the policy of (a US) withdrawal from Syria,” he told Arab News.
“Erdogan will therefore need to cooperate with Assad and Russia.”
This photo released by the Syrian Arab News Agency shows President Bashar Assad (R) meeting with then Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Aleppo. (SANA/AFP)
The second reason, Darwish says, is Erdogan’s desire to get closer to Syrian regime ally Russia after Turkiye’s drift toward the US following the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Indeed, as a NATO member state, the conflict has complicated Turkiye’s normally balanced approach to its ties with Washington and Moscow.
“Ankara’s cooperation with Moscow is difficult in terms of the Ukrainian issue,” said Darwish. “As a result of the significant Western interference in this issue, their cooperation in Syria represents a meeting point through which Erdogan wants to highlight his friendship with Putin and Moscow’s interests in the Middle East.”
Those in Syria’s opposition-held northwest, which is backed by Turkiye, see an Ankara-Damascus rapprochement as a betrayal.
Protesters in opposition-held Idlib and the Aleppo countryside wave flags of the Syrian revolution and hold signs that read: ‘If you want to get closer to Assad, congratulations, the curse of history is upon you.’ (AN photo by Ahmed Akasha)
During one of several protests in Idlib since the beginning of July, demonstrators held signs in Arabic that read: “If you want to get closer to Assad, congratulations, the curse of history is upon you.”
Abdulkarim Omar, a political activist from Idlib, told Arab News: “Western Syria, Idlib, the Aleppo countryside, and all areas belonging to the opposition completely reject this behavior because it is only in the interest of the Syrian regime.
Turkish-backed Syrian rebel fighters take part in a military parade in the rebel-held northern part of the Aleppo province on July 2, 2022. (AFP)
“The Syrian people came out 13 years ago and rose up in their revolution demanding freedom, dignity, and the building of a civil, democratic state for all Syrians. This can only be achieved by overthrowing the tyrannical Syrian regime represented by Bashar Assad. They still cling to this principle and these slogans and cannot abandon them.”
Those living in areas controlled by the Kurdish-led and US-backed Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, or AANES, which holds much of Syria’s territory east of the Euphrates River, are also wary of the consequences of normalization.
Map of Syria showing zones of control by the different partipants in late 2020. Some cities then under the control of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces had been seized by Turkish forces. (AFP/File)
“There are fears among the population that reconciliation may be a prelude to punishing the Syrian Kurds for their political choices,” said Omar.
Incursions into Syria from 2016 to 2019 saw Turkiye take control of several cities, many of which were previously under the control of the AANES.
Turkiye’s justification for its 2018 and 2019 incursions and continued presence on Syrian territory was its aim to establish a “safe zone” between itself and the armed forces of the AANES — the Syrian Democratic Forces.
A member of the Syrian Kurdish Asayish security forces stands guard as mourners march during the funeral of two Kurdish women killed in a Turkish drone strike in Hasakah, northeastern Syria, on June 21, 2023. (AFP)
Turkiye views the SDF as a Syrian wing of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, a group that has been in conflict with the Turkish state since the 1980s.
“Naturally, the Syrian Kurds know that they will be part of any deal that Erdogan wants to conclude with Assad,” said Darwish. “This issue unnerves the Syrian Kurds, who see Turkiye as ready to do anything to harm them and their experience in self-administration.”
Darwish says the Syrian Kurds would accept reconciliation on three conditions. First they would want to see Turkiye remove its troops from Afrin and Ras Al-Ain. Second, an end to Turkish strikes against AANES areas. And third, a guarantee from the Assad regime “that the Syrian Kurds will enjoy their national, cultural, and administrative rights.”
In this photo taken on January 27, 2018, a Turkish military convoy drives through the Oncupinar border crossing as troops enter Syria during a military campaign in the Kurdish-held Syrian enclave of Afrin. (AFP/File)
But just how likely is a rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus? Not very, according to conflict analyst and UNHRC delegate Thoreau Redcrow. “I find the prospects of an Erdogan and Assad detente very unlikely,” he told Arab News.
“Historically, Turkiye’s ideas of ‘normalization’ with Syria amount to a policy of one-way influence for Ankara’s benefit. In this arrangement, Turkiye continues to occupy Hatay (Liwa Iskenderun), which they seized from Syria in 1938, and make military incursion demands on their sovereignty, like with the Adana Agreement in 1998, but give nothing in return.”
Assad has made it clear in public statements that a meeting between him and Erdogan would only occur on the condition of a Turkish withdrawal from Syrian territory. Redcrow believes Turkiye has no intention of leaving.
“I cannot see Damascus being interested in being manipulated for a photo-op,” he said. “The Syrian government is far more prideful than some of the other regional actors who are happy to be one of Turkiye’s ‘neo-Ottoman vilayets.’”
Erdogan may be attempting to capitalize on the trend toward normalization among Arab countries, which began in earnest with Syria’s reinstatement into the Arab League last year. European states and the US, however, remain divided.
A parade by female staff of the internal security and police force of the US-backed AANES, which governs much of Syria’s territory east of the Euphrates River. (AN photo by Ali Ali)
“Whereas Germany, France, Italy, and the UK in particular are more focused on how Turkiye can control the gateway into Europe and act as a ‘continental bouncer’ for refugees from the Middle East and Western Asia, the US is more focused on denying Russia and Iran full access to all of Syria again for strategic reasons, like Mediterranean Sea access and the ‘Shiite land bridge’ from Tehran to Beirut,” said Redcrow.
“The current status quo is far more beneficial to Washington than any reconciliation would be, as it would also endanger the northeast portions of Syria, where the US military is embedded with their most reliable military partners against Daesh in the SDF. So, Turkiye would not be given any kind of green light to place American interests at risk.”
The US House of Representatives in February passed the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act of 2023, which prohibits any normalization with Assad. In a post on the social media platform X on July 12, the bill’s author, Rep. Joe Wilson, voiced his disappointment with Erdogan’s calls for normalization, likening it to “normalizing with death itself.”
Troops from the Syrian Democratic Forces and the US-led anti-jihadist coalition, take part in heavy-weaponry military exercises in the countryside of Deir Ezzor in northeastern Syria, on March 25, 2022. ((AFP)
Though there may be little chance of reconciliation succeeding at this point, the approximately 3.18 million Syrian refugees living in Turkiye view even rumors of normalization with fear and dread.
“People are very afraid,” Amal Hayat, a Syrian mother of five living in southeastern Turkiye, told Arab News. “Since the rumors (of reconciliation) started, many people don’t even leave their homes. Even if they are beaten by their bosses at work, they are afraid to say anything for fear of being deported.”
Turkish authorities deported more than 57,000 Syrians in 2023, according to Human Rights Watch.
“A forced return would affect us a lot,” said Hayat. “For example, if a woman returns to Syria with her family, her husband may be arrested by the regime. Or if a man gets deported back to Syria and his wife and children stay in Turkiye, how will they manage? It’s difficult. Here, our kids can study. They have stability and safety.
A Syrian woman is seen at a refugee camp near the Syria-Turkish border. (AN photo by Ali Ali)
The fear of deportation has been compounded by waves of violence against Syrian refugees which swept Turkiye’s south in recent weeks. On June 30, residents of central Turkiye’s Kayseri province attacked Syrians and their property.
Anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkiye is partially due to economic issues, where Turks see underpaid or even unpaid Syrians as a threat to their prospects of employment.
“The Turks are very happy for us to return home,” said Hayat. “For them, it’s not soon enough. We are all living under a heightened level of stress. We are just praying that (Assad and Erdogan) don’t reconcile.”
Construction equipment awaiting Gaza entry from Egypt: report
Updated 26 sec ago
RAFAH: Dozens of bulldozers, construction vehicles and trucks carrying mobile homes lined up on Egypt’s side of the Rafah border crossing on Thursday, awaiting to enter Gaza, state-linked Egyptian media reported. Al-Qahera News, with close ties to Egyptian intelligence services, said the equipment was positioned at the crossing in preparation for entry into the war-ravaged Palestinian territory. An AFP photographer also confirmed seeing the vehicles, including trucks carrying caravans, waiting at the border. However, an Israeli government spokesman said heavy machinery would not be allowed to enter the Gaza Strip via the Rafah crossing with Egypt. “There is no entry of caravans (mobile homes) or heavy equipment into the Gaza Strip, and there is no coordination for this,” Omer Dostri, a spokesman for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, wrote on X. “According to the agreement, no goods are allowed to enter the Gaza Strip through the Rafah crossing,” he added. Under an ongoing truce agreement, Rafah has been opened for evacuation of the wounded and sick. Other aid is also allowed to enter the territory via the Kerem Shalom crossing. “We stand behind them (Palestinians) and hopefully better days are ahead,” Ahmed Abdel Dayem, a driver at the border, told AFP. The situation unfolds amid growing tensions over a US President Donald Trump plan to relocate Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt and Jordan, a move that has faced staunch opposition from both countries. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi called such displacement an “injustice” that Egypt “cannot take part in,” while Jordan’s King Abdullah said his country remains “steadfast” in its position against forced displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Egypt is set to host a summit of Arab nations later this month and announced this week that it would present a “comprehensive vision” for Gaza’s reconstruction in a way that ensures Palestinians remain on their land. Egypt and Jordan, both key US allies, are heavily reliant on foreign aid and the US is considered one of their top donors.
International debt is creating instability, global investor says
Updated 13 February 2025
Arab News
DUBAI: The debt problem is not one that only the US is facing — it is a world debt problem that China, Europe and many countries are confronting, according to Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates.
During a session conducted by TV host, Tucker Carlson, at the World Governments Summit on Wednesday, Dalio said: “If you have that debt problem, you exacerbate the great conflict that’s going to happen. You create political instability. It’s a geopolitical problem.
“Climate is costly, roughly $8 trillion a year on climate, so it’s a financial thing, and now the question is this new technology and how are we going to handle that and how do we make the most to raise productivity or what is it used for. Is it used for conflict?”
Carlson said: “You have run one of the biggest hedge funds in the world for a long time, and in order to do that you have had to think about the rest of the world in a systematic way … in doing that, you have developed this framework for understanding what’s happening now and what’s going to happen.”
Carlson then asked Dalio to discuss the five trends that he had looked at to consider what was going to happen next.
As a global macro investor for 50 years, the Bridgewater Associates’ founder said that he discovered that he needed to study history. By doing so, he observed five major forces that operate in a big cycle.
The first is that “we have a big debt issue globally, that is very important… that is a force, a financial force.”
The second, he said, is the internal order and disorder force that goes in a cycle in which there “is greater and greater gaps and conflicts between the left and the right and populism that forces a great conflict like a civil war.
“I believe we are in a form of a civil war now, that’s going on within countries,” he said.
The third force is the great world power conflict that occurs “when a great power runs the world order and then there is a rising power that challenges that, you have a great power conflict: US-China.”
The fourth force is that throughout history, acts of nature — “droughts, floods and pandemics — have killed more people than wars and have toppled world orders more than anything else.”
The fifth big force is “man’s inventiveness, particularly of technology.”
Dalio said: “Everything that we talk about, everything that we are looking at, falls under one of those and they move in a largely cyclical way and that is the framework that we are now living out.”
Giving his sense of the scale of global debt, Dalio said that “it’s now unprecedented in all of history” and went on to explain how it worked, saying “there is a supply-demand situation.
“The way the debt cycle works is, think of credit, and our credit system as being like a circulatory system, that credit brings buying power, brings nutrients to all the system … but that credit that we buy things with, that we buy financial assets, goods and services with, creates debt.
“That debt accumulates like plaque in a system that begins to have a problem because it starts to squeeze out spending, for example the US budget, about a trillion dollars a year now goes to pay interest rates. Over the next year we are going to have over $9 trillion debt that we have to pay back and roll forward hopefully.”
So there is a supply demand issue with this debt, “one man’s debts are another man’s assets.” Dalio added: “if those assets don’t provide an adequate return, or they feel there is risk in those assets, there is not enough demand for that debt, there is a problem … that problem is that interest rates then start to rise, and those holders of the debt begin to realize there is a debt problem, and worse, on the supply and demand, that they have to sell debt.”
Dalio said that the US would run a deficit of about 7.5 percent of GDP “if the Trump tax cuts are continued,” which he expected.
“That deficit needs to be cut to 3 percent of GDP… all policymakers and the president should have a pledge to get it to 3 percent of GDP, because otherwise we are likely to have a problem,” he said.
Govts must build ‘proper guardrails’ against AI threats, report warns
Updated 13 February 2025
Arab News
DUBAI: Artificial intelligence can redefine societies but needs “proper guardrails” to be used for the common good, the head of a top management firm’s AI division has said.
Jad Haddad, partner and global head of Quotient, AI by Oliver Wyman, was speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai on Thursday.
His firm and the summit co-launched a report, “AI: A Roadmap for Governments,” highlighting the urgent need for governments to develop strategies for the responsible deployment of AI.
“This report highlights the urgent need for governments to act decisively in creating frameworks that not only foster innovation, but also address the ethical and societal risks associated with AI, ensuring it serves the common good,” Haddad said.
Amid rapid evolution in AI, the report underscores both the transformative potential and significant risks the technology poses to society.
With more than one-third of the world’s countries already publishing national AI strategies, the report highlights AI as a strategic technology poised to redefine industries, governance and global competitiveness.
WGS’ managing director, Mohamed Al-Sharhan, said: “The future of AI demands a unified global response.”
The report is a crucial blueprint for policymakers that guides them through the complexities of the technology, Al-Sharhan said.
It also highlights the importance of aligning academic institutions, launching talent programs and establishing public-private collaborations to effectively navigate the complexities of AI adoption worldwide.
The report calls for building robust regulatory frameworks to protect citizens and ensure equitable access to AI technologies.
“Without proper guardrails, AI could become the biggest threat to privacy and democracy that we have ever faced,” Haddad said.
Western allies and Arab countries gather in Paris to discuss Syria’s future amid US aid freeze
Trump’s controversial decision to freeze foreign assistance has raised concerns in Syria, a country that had depended on hundreds of millions of dollars in aid from the US and now left in ruins by a civil war
Updated 13 February 2025
AP
PARIS: Western allies and Arab countries are gathering in Paris on Thursday for an international conference on Syria to discuss the country’s future after the fall of former Syrian president Bashar Assad and amid uncertainty over the United States’ commitment to the region.
It’s the third conference on Syria since Assad was ousted in December, and the first since President Donald Trump’s administration took over in the US.
Trump’s controversial decision to freeze foreign assistance has raised concerns in Syria, a country that had depended on hundreds of millions of dollars in aid from the US and now left in ruins by a civil war.
The Trump administration is pulling almost all USAID workers out of the field worldwide, all but ending a six-decade mission meant to shore up American security by fighting starvation, funding education and working to end epidemics.
While many Syrians were happy to see the rule of Assad come to an abrupt end in December, analysts have warned that the honeymoon period for the country’s new rulers may be short-lived if they are not able to jumpstart the country’s battered economy.
An end to the sanctions imposed during Assad’s time will be key to that, but sanctions are not the only issue. Billions in aid needed
More aid is crucial to achieve a peaceful reconstruction during the post-Assad transition. The country needs massive investment to rebuild housing, electricity, water and transportation infrastructure after nearly 14 years of war. The United Nations in 2017 estimated that it would cost at least $250 billion, while some experts now say the number could reach at least $400 billion.
With few productive sectors and government employees making wages equivalent to about $20 per month, Syria has grown increasingly dependent on remittances and humanitarian aid. But the flow of aid was throttled after the Trump administration halted US foreign assistance last month.
The effects were particularly dire in the country’s northwest, a formerly rebel-held enclave that hosts millions of people displaced from other areas by the country’s civil war. Many of them live in sprawling tent camps.
The freeze on USAID funding forced clinics serving many of those camps to shut down, and nonprofits laid off local staff. In northeastern Syria, a camp housing thousands of family members of Islamic State fighters was thrown into chaos when the group providing services there was forced to briefly stop work.
A workshop bringing together key donors from the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations, the United Nations and key agencies from Arab countries will be held alongside the conference to coordinate international aid to Syria. Doubts over US support
Uncertainty also surrounds the future of US military support in the region.
In 2019 during his first term, Trump decided on a partial withdrawal of US troops form the northeast of Syria before he halted the plans. And in December last year, when rebels were on their way to topple Assad, Trump said the United States should not ” dive into the middle of a Syrian civil war.”
Now that Syria’s new leader Ahmad Al-Sharaa is trying to consolidate his power, the USintentions in the region remain unclear.
A French diplomatic official confirmed the presence of a US representative at the conference, but said “our understanding is that the new US administration is still in the review process regarding Syria, it does not seem (the US position) will be clarified at that conference.” The official spoke anonymously in line with the French presidency’s customary practices.
The commander of the main US-backed force in Syria recently said that US troops should stay in Syria because the Daesh group will benefit from a withdrawal.
Since Damascus fell on Dec. 8 and Assad fled to Moscow, the new leadership has yet to lay out a clear vision of how the country will be governed.
The Islamic militant group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, or HTS – a former Al-Qaeda affiliate that the EU and UN consider to be a terrorist organization – has established itself as Syria’s de facto rulers after coordinating with the southern fighters during the offensive late last year.
French organizers said the three main goals of the meeting, which is not a pledging conference, are to coordinate efforts to support a peaceful transition, organize cooperation and aid from neighbors and partners, and to continue talks on the fight against impunity.
The conference takes place at ministerial level. Syria’s interim foreign minister Asaad Al-Shibani has been invited and it will be his first visit to Europe.
Speaking this week at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Al-Shibani underlined the new government in Damascus’ desire to improve relations with the West and get sanctions on Syria lifted so the country could start rebuilding after the ruinous, 14-year war.
Turkish president holds talks with Pakistani premier to discuss Gaza and bilateral issues
Updated 13 February 2025
AP
ISLAMABAD: Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday at his office in Islamabad to discuss the situation in Gaza and a range of bilateral issues.
They will sign several agreements for boosting trade and economic ties between the nations, officials said.
Erdogan left his hotel amid tight security, and was welcomed by people in traditional Turkish and Pakistani dresses who lined a key city road that had been decorated with Turkish and Pakistani flags. The crowds danced to the beat of drums as the Turkish leader’s convoy passed through the streets.
Erdogan and his wife, Emine Erdogan, were welcomed by Sharif on their arrival at his office. A band played the national anthems of both countries before a ceremony that saw the leaders inspecting a guard of honor.
Erdogan will jointly chair bilateral strategic cooperation talks and the two sides are expected to sign a number of agreements, according to a government announcement.
